The term structure of interest rates is crucial for the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets and the macroeconomy. Disentangling the impact of monetary policy on the components of interest rates, expected short rates, and term premia is essential to understanding this channel. To...

I undertake a narrow, wide, and long replication of Goyal, van der Leij and Moraga‐Gonzélez (2006, https://doi.org/10.1086/500990). Using social network analysis, they show that the Economics profession gradually evolved into a small world. Small worlds (or small world networks) have unique...

We show that Bertrand et al.'s (QJE, 2015, ) finding of a sharp drop in the relative income distribution within married couples at the point where wives start to earn more than their husbands is unstable across different estimation procedures and varies across contexts. We apply the estimators...

Point forecasts can be interpreted as functionals (i.e., point summaries) of predictive distributions. We extend methodology for the identification of the functional based on time series of point forecasts and associated realizations. Focusing on state‐dependent quantiles and expectiles, we...

The linear pool is the most popular method for combining density forecasts. We analyze its implications concerning forecast uncertainty, using a new framework that focuses on the means and variances of the individual and combined forecasts. Our results show that, if the variance predictions of...

We develop tests for the null hypothesis that forecasts become uninformative beyond some maximum forecast horizon h∗. The forecast may result from a survey of forecasters or from an estimated parametric model. The first class of tests compares the mean-squared prediction error of the forecast...