This paper presents a method to test for multimodality of an estimated kernel density of derivative estimates from a nonparametric regression. The test is included in a study of nonparametric growth regressions. The results show that in the estimation of unconditional β-convergence the...

We analyze the decision whether to participate and where and what to study in a public system of higher education, based on a unique dataset of all eligible high school pupils in an essentially closed region (Flanders). We find that pupils perceive the available institutions and programs as...

We investigate households' portfolio choice using a microeconometric approach derived from mean-variance optimization. We assume that households have heterogeneous expectations on the distribution of excess returns and that they cannot take short positions in risky assets. Assuming two such...

Microdata concerning consumer demand typically show considerable variation in real expenditures, but very little variation in prices. We propose a semiparametric strategy for the consumer demand problem in which expenditure share equations are estimated nonparametrically in the real expenditure...

Despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil, oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean-squared prediction error sense than no-change forecasts. This result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price, as captured by the oil futures...

A path forecast refers to the sequence of forecasts 1 to H periods into the future. A summary of the range of possible paths the predicted variable may follow for a given confidence level requires construction of simultaneous confidence regions that adjust for any covariance between the elements...

We set out a model to compute short-term forecasts of the euro area GDP growth in real time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time dataset that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. With this dataset...

We develop a flexible business cycle indicator that accounts for potential time variation in macroeconomic variables. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend cycle decomposition model and is constructed from a moderate set of US macroeconomic time series. In...