We construct models which enable a decision maker to analyse the implications of typical time series patterns of daily exchange rates for currency risk management. Our approach is Bayesian where extensive use is made of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The effects of several model...

Previous empirical studies of individual union status in Britain have been cross-sectional. In contrast, we use longitudinal data from the National Child Development Study, to estimate the determinants of male trade union membership over the period 1981-1991. As suggested by union theories, we...

Pischke (1995) uses both microeconomic and macroeconomic US data to test the idea that, within an otherwise standard PIH framework, ignorance by agents of aggregate labour income can account for the observed degree of excess smoothness and sensitivity in consumption. His tests involve only the...

In the evaluation of economic forecasts, it is frequently the case that comparisons are made between a number of competing predictors. A natural question to ask in such contexts is whether one forecast encompasses its competitors, in the sense that they contain no useful information not present...

A cost model is developed for the estimation of several technological parameters describing the production process of aluminium smelters worldwide. The model is similar to Baltagi and Griffin's (1988), but, instead of estimating technological change using a panel data set of firms, we estimate,...

Even though recent Monte Carlo evidence has shown that the use of bootstrap critical values, instead of asymptotic ones, improves the size of the tests substantially, empirical applications using GMM bootstrap techniques are largely missing. In this paper, the dynamic relationship between local...

In this paper we propose a dynamic multinomial probit model in order to estimate the long-run and short- run effects of marketing mix variables on brand choice. The latent variables, which contain the unobserved perceived utilities, follow a first-order vector error correction autoregressive...