We use counterfactual experiments to investigate the sources of the large volatility reduction in US real GDP growth in the 1980s. Contrary to an existing literature that conducts counterfactual experiments based on classical estimation and point estimates, we consider Bayesian analysis that...

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) describes how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real aggregate demand drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the...

Rationalizing non-participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for positive marketable surplus-'distances-to market'-are computed from a model in...

This work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth-rate time series. We show that, in the majority of OECD countries, output growth-rate distributions are well approximated by symmetric exponential power densities with tails much fatter than those of a Gaussian (but...