This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the leading indicator. Estimation and model selection procedures allow us to estimate and identify time-varying non-linearity in...

This paper examines the intertemporal relation between risk and return for the aggregate stock market using high-frequency data. We use daily realized, GARCH, implied, and range-based volatility estimators to determine the existence and significance of a risk-return trade-off for several stock...

This paper analyses the distribution of purchasing power standardized per capita income across EU-12 regions between 1977 and 1996. Dispersion of incomes between regions is measured taking into account their population sizes. The cross-sectional distributions are initially described by weighted...

Any non-stationary series can be decomposed into permanent (or 'trend') and transitory (or 'cycle') components. Typically some atheoretic pre-filtering procedure is applied to extract the permanent component. This paper argues that analysis of the fundamental underlying stationary economic...

This paper compares two methods of analyzing aggregate data that is classified by period and age. Because there is a linear relationship among age, period, and cohort, it is not possible to distinguish the separate effects without employing an identifying assumption. The first method, which is...

We perform an extensive series of Monte Carlo experiments to compare the performance of two variants of the 'jackknife instrumental variables estimator', or JIVE, with that of the more familiar 2SLS and LIML estimators. We find no evidence to suggest that JIVE should ever be used. It is always...

This paper reviews GRETL, a software package for econometrics. Mainly it discusses GRETL's merits as an aid in teaching undergraduate econometrics. This discussion is in two parts. First one author, an instructor, reviews the teaching of undergraduate econometrics with GRETL. Then the second...

This article explores to what extent the poor results that are often found when estimating parameters of production functions can be attributed to measurement errors, due to the use of common price deflators across firms. Because of the lack of detailed micro-economic data, econometricians have...

We find that an important programming error was made by Hobijn and Franses (2000) in conducting multivariate stationarity tests. The empirical results in their paper are subject to errors. Other studies that have used the coded algorithm of Hobijn and Franses are likely to suffer the same...

Within the semiparametric framework introduced by Pendakur (1999) we introduce a new loss function to estimate equivalence scales. This loss function uses all available information from the total expenditures of both the reference and nonreference households and as such it produces more reliable...