Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether these cycles coincide. Recent papers suggest by their empirical research set-up that they do, or at least that defaults and credit spreads tend...

Recent research has found that trend-break unit root tests derived from univariate linear models do not support the hypothesis of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) for US dollar real exchange rates. In this paper univariate smooth transition models are utilized to develop unit root tests...

We analyse job-training effects on Korean women for the period January 1999 to March 2000, using a large data set of size about 52,000. We employ a number of estimation techniques: Weibull MLE and accelerated failure time approach, which are both parametric; Cox partial likelihood estimator,...

The paper argues that it is important to realize that the concept of a cycle has rarely been precisely articulated in empirical work and that often researchers are using very different definitions of it. We propose a two-fold classification based upon what series one is measuring a cycle in and...

This paper proposes a vector equilibrium correction model of stock returns that exploits the information in the futures market, while allowing for both regime-switching behaviour and international spillovers across stock market indices. Using data for three major stock market indices since 1989,...

Pashardes (1991) and Banks et al. (1994) use parametric methods to estimate lifetime equivalence scales. Their approaches put parametric restrictions on the differences in within-period expenditure needs across household types, the intertemporal allocation of expenditure, and the shapes of...

We use Japanese aggregate and disaggregate money demand data to show that conflicting inferences can arise. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was...

This paper proposes a new method for estimating a structural model of labour supply in which hours of work depend on (log) wages and the wage rate is considered endogenous. The main innovation with respect to other related estimation procedures is that a nonparametric additive structure in the...

The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and simultaneous equation macroeconometric model (SEM) styles of empirical macroeconomic modelling are compared and contrasted, with reference to two models of the UK economy, namely the long-run structural VAR model of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin...

This paper presents a new nonlinear time series model that captures a post-recession 'bounce-back' in the level of aggregate output. While a number of studies have examined this type of business cycle asymmetry using recession-based dummy variables and threshold models, we relate the...