The standard approach to modeling primary commodity markets under rational expectations is to relate the commodity price to the production and consumption "surprises" (i.e. the innovations on the equations). Using the world aluminum market, we show how this approach can be modified so that both...

In a standard multi-good life-cycle consumption model (with intertemporal additive utility) the intratemporal relations between the marginal utilities of the different goods are deterministic. However, these deterministic identities will not usually be satisfied by the data. To avoid these...

In the forestry literature, stochastic extensions of the classic Faustmann model have become the predominant models of optimal harvesting on even-aged timber stands. A recent attempt to estimate a stochastic version of the Faustmann model left several puzzling results unexplained (Provencher,...

Throughout the U.S. dairy farm industry, observed rates of dairy cow replacement consistently exceed the rates prescribed as optimal by dairy economists. We attempt to uncover the causes of this discrepancy by estimating a series of dynamic discrete choice models of dairy cow replacement using...

It has recently been argued that when the conventional specification of M2 income velocity is extended to include proxies for two types of institutional change, as emphasized by Bordo and Jonung (1987, 1990), corresponding to the process of monetization and increasing financial sophistication of...

We consider the implications for forecast accuracy of imposing unit roots and cointegrating restrictions in linear systems of I(1) variables in levels, differences, and cointegrated combinations. Asymptotic formulae are obtained for multi-step forecast error variances for each representation....