In many forecast evaluation applications, standard tests as well as tests allowing for time‐variation in relative forecast ability build on heteroskedasticity‐and‐autocorrelation consistent (HAC) covariance estimators. Yet, the finite‐sample performance of these asymptotics is often...

We propose a novel approach to the study of international trade based on a theory of country integration that embodies a broad systemic viewpoint on the relationship between trade and growth. Our model leads to an indicator of country openness that measures a country's level of integration...