Forecasts of key interest rates set by central banks are of paramount concern for investors and policy makers. Recently it has been shown that forecasts of the federal funds rate target, the most anticipated indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank's monetary policy stance, can be improved...

We model high-frequency trading processes by a multivariate multiplicative error model that is driven by component-specific observation driven dynamics as well as a common latent autoregressive factor. The model is estimated using efficient importance sampling techniques. Applying the model to...

Faced with real and nominal shocks, what should a benevolent central bank do, fix the money growth rate or target the inflation rate? In this paper, we make a first attempt at studying the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a micro-founded model of money. Specifically, we produce...

This paper analyzes the interaction of financial frictions and non-convex adjustment costs. Non-convex adjustment costs imply that firm-level investment is lumpy. Firms invest infrequently but each investment is large. This allows financial variables to influence investment along two margins....

We study effects of using Sharpe ratio as a performance measure for compensating money managers in a dynamic market. We demonstrate that the manager's focus on the short horizon is detrimental to the long-horizon investor. When the returns are iid, the performance loss is significant, even when...

This paper revisits the important result of the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, which states that increased uncertainty raises the value of waiting and thus decelerates investment. Typically in this literature projects are assumed to be perpetual. However, in today's...