This article investigates, both in finite samples and asymptotically, statistical inference on predictive regressions where time series are generated by present value models of stock prices. We show that regression-based tests, including robust tests such as the conditional test and the Q-test,...

Using cross-country data, we evaluate four conceptually distinct causal variables believed to shape property rights institutions: Legal Origin, Endowments, Ethnic Diversity, and Religion. Given the correlations between the explanatory variables, it is difficult to fashion empirical tests which...

Several empirical studies reported that pricing kernels exhibit a common pattern across different markets. The main interest in pricing kernels lies in validating the presence of the peaks and their variability in location among curves. Motivated by this observation we investigate the problem of...

We consider additive intensity (Aalen) models as an alternative to the multiplicative intensity (Cox) models for analyzing the default risk of a sample of rated, nonfinancial U.S. firms. The setting allows for estimating and testing the significance of time-varying effects. We use a variety of...

Option prices provide a great deal of information regarding the market's expectations of future asset price dynamics. But, the implied dynamics are under the risk-neutral measure rather than the physical measure under which the price of the underlying asset itself evolves. This article...

We develop tests for predictability in a first-order ARMA model often suggested for stock returns. Instead of the conventional ARMA model, we consider its non-Gaussian and noninvertible counterpart that has identical autocorrelation properties but allows for conditional heteroskedasticity...

This article develops a new family of Gaussian macro-dynamic term structure models (MTSMs) in which bond yields follow a low-dimensional factor structure and the historical distribution of bond yields and macroeconomic variables is characterized by a vector-autoregression with order p 1. Most...

This article proposes a modeling framework for the study of changes in cross-market comovement conditional on volatility regimes. Methodologically, we extend the Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH model to allow the dynamics of correlations to depend on asset variances through a...

This article shows that the risk-bearing capacity of U.S. securities broker-dealers is an important determinant of risk premia in commodity derivatives markets where broker-dealers serve as counterparties to producers and consumers seeking to hedge commodity price risk. I capture the limits of...

In this paper, we investigate the timing of structural changes in yield curve dynamics in the context of an arbitrage-free, one latent and two macroeconomic factors, affine term structure model. We suppose that all parameters in the model are subject to changes at unknown time points. We fit a...