I propose a modeling approach to classifying trades as buys or sells. Modeled classifications consider information strengths, microstructure effects, and classification correlations. I also propose estimators for quotes prevailing at trade time. Comparisons using 2800 U.S. stocks show modeled...

This paper proposes a new intraday volatility forecasting model, particularly suitable for modeling a large number of assets. We decompose volatility of high-frequency returns into components that may be easily interpreted and estimated. The conditional variance is a product of daily, diurnal,...

Using a reduced rank regression framework as well as information criteria, we investigate the presence of commonalities in the intraday periodicity, a dominant feature in the return volatility of most intraday financial time series. We find that the test has little size distortion and reasonable...

This paper studies the link between two popular measures of risk, that are the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Tail-VaR (TVaR). We study how the TVaR and VaR are related through their risk levels and characterize the underlying distributions under which this relationship is linear. A large portion...

It is well known that strategies that allow investors to allocate their wealth using return and volatility forecasts, the use of which are termed market and volatility timing, are of significant value. In this paper, we show that distribution timing, defined here as the ability to use forecasts...

We provide evidence on two alternative mechanisms of interaction between returns and volatilities: the leverage ef fect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and implied volatility and find that implied volatilities are...

We propose several tests for rational bubbles and investigate their power properties. The focus lies on the case where bubble detection is reduced to testing for a unknown change from a random walk to an explosive process. In simulations, a Chow-type break test exhibits the highest power and...

An important challenge of portfolio allocation arises when the (true) characteristics of returns' distribution are replaced by sample estimates. Such substitutions introduce estimation risk, which adds to traditional financial risk. I develop a new framework to provide a feasible optimal...

This paper elaborates sequential procedures for monitoring the validity of a volatility model. A state-space representation describes dynamics of daily integrated volatility. The observation equation relates the integrated volatility to its measures such as the realized volatility or bipower...

In this paper, we present a realized range-based multipower variation theory, which can be used to estimate return variation and draw jump-robust inference about the diffusive volatility component, when a high-frequency record of asset prices is available. The standard range-statistic--routinely...