Option pricing models and longer-term value-at-risk (VaR) models generally require volatility forecasts over horizons considerably longer than the data frequency. The typical recursive procedure for generating longer-term forecasts keeps the <italic>relative</italic> weights of recent and older observations the...

This paper numerically solves the decision problem of a multiperiod constant relative risk aversion individual who faces transaction costs and has access to two risky assets, both with predictable returns. With proportional transaction costs and independent and identically distributed returns,...

We find that the market’s recent cross-sectional dispersion in stock returns is positively related to the subsequent value book-to-market premium and negatively related to the subsequent momentum premium. The partial relation between return dispersion (RD) and the subsequent value and momentum...

Motivated by the effect on valuation of stopped or reduced debt coupon payments from a company in financial distress, we value a level-dependent annuity contract where the annuity rate depends on the value of an underlying asset process. The range of possible values of this asset is divided into...

Recent research finds that the stocks that mutual fund managers buy outperform the stocks that they sell (e.g., Chen, Jegadeesh, and Wermers (2000)). We study the nature of this stock-picking ability. We construct measures of trading skill based on how the stocks held and traded by fund managers...

This paper studies seasonal predictability in the cross section of international stock returns. Stocks that outperform the domestic market in a particular month continue to outperform the domestic market in that same calendar month for up to 5 years. The pattern appears in Canada, Japan, and 12...

This paper extends the affine class of term structure models to describe the joint dynamics of exchange rates and interest rates. In particular, the issue of how to reconcile the low volatility of interest rates with the high volatility of exchange rates is addressed. The incomplete market...

This paper performs specification analysis on the term structure of variance swap rates on the S&P 500 index and studies the optimal investment decision on the variance swaps and the stock index. The analysis identifies 2 stochastic variance risk factors, which govern the short and long end of...

Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility spiked nearly fivefold during the Internet boom of the late 1990s, dwarfing in magnitude a moderately increasing trend. While some researchers argue that this rise in idiosyncratic risk was the result of changes in the characteristics of public firms, others...

We examine the impact of explicitly incorporating a measure of debt capacity in recent tests of competing theories of capital structure. Our main results are that if external funds are required, in the absence of debt capacity concerns, debt appears to be preferred to equity. Concerns over debt...