Managers in soccer face a critical in-game decision concerning player substitutions. While past research has investigated the overall effect of various strategy changes during the course of a match, no studies have focused solely on the crucial element of timing. This paper uses the data mining...

Regression-based adjusted plus-minus statistics were developed in basketball and have recently come to hockey. The purpose of these statistics is to provide an estimate of each player's contribution to his team, independent of the strength of his teammates, the strength of his opponents, and...

The San Francisco Giants were crowned champions of Major League Baseball in 2010 after defeating the Texas Rangers in the World Series. The World Series matchup may have come as a surprise to many baseball fanatics; the Rangers ended the regular season with the worst record of any of the eight...

We present evidence, based on play-by-play data from all 6087 games from the 2006/07– 2009/10 seasons of the National Basketball Association (NBA), that basketball scoring is well described by a continuous-time anti-persistent random walk. The time intervals between successive scoring events...

Despite the massive popularity of probabilistic (association) football forecasting models, and the relative simplicity of the outcome of such forecasts (they require only three probability values corresponding to home win, draw, and away win) there is no agreed scoring rule to determine their...

Several models are proposed for the probability of converting a third down attempt in the National Football League. The probability, which can depend on the number of yards to go, the strength of the offense, and the strength of the defense, leads to a logistic regression. We approach the...

Quantitative evaluation of fielding ability in baseball has been an ongoing challenge for statisticians. Detailed recording of ball-in-play data in recent years has spurred the development of sophisticated fielding models. Foremost among these approaches, Jensen et al. (2009) used a hierarchical...

This paper uses the difference in seeding ranks to predict the outcome of March Madness games. It updates the Boulier-Stekler method by predicting the outcomes by rounds. We also use the consensus rankings obtained from individuals, systems and poll. We conclude that the consensus rankings were...

We use three-dimensional optical tracking data on the 25-frames-per-second positional data of 2,400 free throw shots by the twenty players with at least twelve tracked makes and twelve tracked misses over the course of the 2010-2011 NBA season, fit each trajectory to a comprehensive physics...

This paper proposes a multiple-membership generalized linear mixed model for ranking college football teams using only their win/loss records. The model results in an intractable, high-dimensional integral due to the random effects structure and nonlinear link function. We use recent data sets...