The passing premium puzzle is the existence of a balance between the number of passing and running plays, even though there is a greater expected return in passing plays. The puzzle is documented using both historical trends of aggregate numbers and play by play data from the 2005 NFL season.

When faced with protecting a three-point lead in the waning seconds of a basketball game, which is a preferable strategy: playing defense or fouling the offense before they can attempt a game-tying shot? Gonzaga University head coach, Mark Few, was faced with such a decision against Michigan...

This paper combines an estimated expected run value equation with a probability model on the outcome of batted balls to isolate the game within a game. Using linear regression we were then able to determine the percentage of the outcome of an at bat that is controlled by a pitcher and the...

We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance in the winning fraction from season-end standings data and quantify the predictability of...

This paper examines the factors that determine the rate of errors called in major league baseball, and changes in the error rate over time. We find that (1) the rate of errors depends on the quality of play and characteristics of the field, but that (2) these do not fully explain variations in...

This paper first presents a brief review of potential rating tools and methods for predicting success in the NCAA basketball tournament, including those methods (such as the Ratings Percentage Index, or RPI) that receive a great deal of weight in selecting and seeding teams for the tournament....

A current approach to the empirical study of the relationship between affect and the performance of athletes before and during a competition is idiographic in nature. Affect-performance zones are estimated for each athlete based on a sufficient number of paired affect and performance...

I create a state space within the game of ice hockey by noting which team has possession, and in what location of the rink the puck is located. This space is used to model the game as a semi-Markov process, as data from a series of games in 2004-2005 NCAA play suggest that the system cannot be...

This paper considers a variance decomposition of offensive baseball performance. Estimating the variance components of offensive baseball performance allows one to determine how much of the variability in performance can be accounted for by differences among teams and how much of the variability...