The existence of base rate fallacy (BRF) bias is explored employing: (i) a context treatment with a narrative story applied to asset markets and (ii) an isomorphic abstract setting using balls-and-bingo cages. Probability estimates reflect a BRF bias in both treatments, but is stronger with...

Estimates of the extra earnings for jobs with higher risks of death are used in cost-benefit studies involving risk changes. Because of this use, the magnitude and stability of the estimated coefficient are important. Part of the current study closely reproduces the 1982 study by Marin and...