In this article, we develop a model that permits a decision maker's preferences to depend on the decision maker's ambiguity about the probability of an event that is relevant for decision-making purposes. We deal with ambiguity about the probability through preference modeling, with ambiguity...

This article generalizes Savage's theory to include event-dependent preferences. The state space is partitioned into finitely many events. The induced.preferences over consequences are assumed independent of the underlying states within, but not across, these events. This results in an...

Subjective expected utility (SEU) rests on and implies four tenets of rational preferences; transitivity, monotonicity of consequences, independence of a common consequence, and accounting equivalences. Empirical evidence against transitivity and monotonicity is reevaluated and the opposite...

This article is concerned with the possible role of reference points and loss aversion (as suggested by prospect theory) in subjects' judgments about the value of increments and decrements in automobile safety. The contingent valuation method is employed in two experiments, both of which...

We develop a new version of prospect theory that employs cumulative rather than separable decision weights and extends the theory in several respects. This version, called cumulative prospect theory, applies to uncertain as well as to risky prospects with any number of outcomes, and it allows...

An easily applied approach is developed to provide one participant in a sequence of conflicts with an optimal strategy. A goal of this article is to demonstrate that it is mathematically feasible to incorporate a decisionmaker's subjective distributions over the effects his actions will have on...

This article classifies three classes of generalized.expected utility preferences according to the justifications for the independence axiom and for the reduction principle that they subscribe to or reject. The results of an experiment designed to test the three classes show that some...

By enriching the set of acts deemed available at least as objects of assessment, the authors obtain a significant tightening of the linear lexicographic representation described in I. LaValle and P. Fishburn (1991). Under the state-independent assumption that every outcome is available in every...

Bias toward the status quo, found in choice and in emotional reactions to adverse outcomes, has been confounded with bias toward omission. The authors unconfounded these effects with scenarios in which change occurs unless action is taken. Subjects reacted more strongly to adverse outcomes...

The dominance principle states that the judged price of gamble A should be equal to or greater than the judged price of gamble B whenever A's outcomes are equal to or better than the corresponding outcomes of B, holding everything else constant. Subjects often violate the dominance principle by...