Previous research demonstrates overestimation of rare events in judgment tasks, and underweighting of rare events in decisions from experience. The current paper presents three laboratory experiments and a field study that explore this pattern. The results suggest that the overestimation and...

The group-diffusion effect is the tendency for people to judge themselves to be less likely to experience a negative outcome as the total number of people exposed to the threat increases --- even when the probability of the outcome is explicitly presented (Yamaguchi, 1998). In Experiment 1 we...

We designed an experiment to test the robustness of Dana, Weber, and Kuang's (DWK), 2007 results. DWK observed that, when participants were given a ``costless'' way --- the click of a button --- to ignore the consequences of their actions on others' payoffs, they chose to remain ignorant and...

Taxation policy is driven by many factors, including public opinion, but little research has examined the strength and stability of the public's taxation preferences. This paper demonstrates one way in which preferences for progressiveness depend on the framing of the question asked....

The gambler's fallacy (Tune, 1964) refers to the belief that a streak is more likely to end than chance would dictate. In three studies, participants exhibited a \textit{retrospective gambler's fallacy} (RGF) in which an event that seems rare appears to come from a longer sequence than an event...

A four-fold classification of emotions with respect to their functions in decision making is proposed. It is argued that emotions are not homogenous concerning their role in decision making, but that four distinct functions can be distinguished concerning emotional phenomena. One function is to...

Five experiments addressed a controversy in the probability judgment literature that centers on the efficacy of framing probabilities as frequencies. The natural frequency view predicts that frequency formats attenuate errors, while the nested-sets view predicts that highlighting the set-subset...

Affective forecasting with respect to two environmental risks (ozone depletion, air pollution) was investigated by studying tourists who travelled to either Australia or Bangkok and were thus confronted with one of these risks. We measured anticipated outcome and anticipated emotions before the...

This article presents a theory of reasoning about moral propositions that is based on four fundamental principles. First, no simple criterion picks out propositions about morality from within the larger set of deontic propositions concerning what is permissible and impermissible in social...