We extend a quantitative general equilibrium model of global trade networks to evaluate the economic impacts of various trade disruptions. Our analysis considers scenarios such as US-China trade wars, a broader Cold War 2.0 decoupling, Trump-era tariffs, and disruptions in the trade of critical...

Producers can leverage their bargaining power vis-'a-vis consumers by entering bargaining with debt. We discover novel general-equilibrium effects of such strategic debt by developing a money-search framework featuring heterogeneous consumers. Debt distorts trade along two margins: it destroys...

Producers can leverage their bargaining power vis-'a-vis consumers by entering bargaining with debt. We discover novel general-equilibrium effects of such strategic debt by developing a money-search framework featuring heterogeneous consumers. Debt distorts trade along two margins: it destroys...

We extend a quantitative general equilibrium model of global trade networks to evaluate the economic impacts of various trade disruptions. Our analysis considers scenarios such as US-China trade wars, a broader Cold War 2.0 decoupling, Trump-era tariffs, and disruptions in the trade of critical...

Determining potential output and the output gap-two inherently unobservable variables-is a major challenge for macroeconomists. This paper presents the R package sectorgap, which features a flexible modeling and estimation framework for a multivariate Bayesian state space model identifying...

This paper presents novel causal evidence on the relationship between various communication channels employed by central banks and households' expectations about future inflation. In a pre-registered randomized survey experiment administered in 2022, we examine adjustment of inflation...

The crisis periods of the past decades have highlighted the difficulty of forecasting economic indicators due to increased non-linearity and rapidly changing dynamics. To address this challenge, we introduce the Transform-Sparsify-Forecast (TSF) framework. The TSF framework first applies...

We introduce banks that issue liquid deposits backed by bonds and capital into an otherwise standard cash-in-advance economy. Liquidity transformation by banks increases aggregate consumption and investment relative to a cash-only economy but can also lead to inefficient overinvestment....

This paper presents a weekly GDP indicator for Switzerland, which addresses the limitations of existing economic activity indicators using alternative high-frequency data created in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The indicator is obtained from a Bayesian mixed-frequency dynamic factor model...

I develop and analyze a monetary model with liquid equity. Equity is a claim on the profits of firms acting as sellers in the search-and-matching market. Buyers in that market devote search to obtain matches with firms, and use the equity to relax a liquidity constraint. The dual nature of...