This article develops a model of unemployment fluctuations. The model keeps the architecture of the general-disequilibrium model of Barro and Grossman (1971) but takes a matching approach to the labor and product markets instead of a disequilibrium approach. On the product and labor markets,...

Scarcity of resources means that difficult choices have to be made about to use them. Cost-effectiveness evidence provides a way to help decision-makers get ‘best value’ from their resources when choosing between two or more clinical or other interventions. Often it is found that one...

The Lorenz-63 model has been frequently used to inform our understanding of the Earth's climate and provide insight for numerical weather and climate prediction. Most studies have focused on the autonomous (time invariant) model behaviour in which the model's parameters are constants. Here we...

We present a model of the maturity of a bank’s uninsured debt. The bank borrows funds and chooses afterwards the riskiness of its assets. This moral hazard problem leads to an excessive level of risk. Short-term debt may have a disciplining effect on the bank’s risk-shifting incentives, but...

In this paper, we extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main respects. First, we relate explicitly crash prediction measures and asset pricing models. Second, we present a simple, effective statistical significance test for crash prediction models. Finally, we propose a...

This paper contributes to a growing literature on the pitfalls of diversification by shedding light on a new mechanism under which, full risk diversification can be sub-optimal. In particular, banks must choose the optimal level of diversification in a market where returns display a bimodal...

This paper approaches the PPP puzzle by using the Bitcoin/US Dollar exchange rate. The use of the virtual currency as macroeconomic laboratory allows us to remove frictions that previously impeded the empirical demonstration of the law of one price. We show that price adjustments are still far...

Abstract Interpersonal mistreatment at work often occurs in the presence of others; however, these “others” are rarely examined in empirical research despite their importance to the context of the negative interaction. We conducted 2 experiments to examine how witnessing incivility affects...

This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with and caused by market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk...

Sovereign default is often associated with the downfall of incumbent governments in democratic polities. Existing scholarship directs attention to the relationship between default and domestic politics and institutions rather than the broader international environment wherein repayment and...