The euro area bond yield spreads have largely converged since the EMU creation. However, during the crisis most eurozone members reported a dramatic rise in government bond yield differentials to German bonds due to deteriorating public finance and liquidity conditions as well as increase in...

The stabilising expenditure rule (SER) imposed on general government (GG) sector in Poland has been binding since 2014. According to this rule, about 90% of GG expenditure will grow in line with the real medium-term GDP, or slower if there is excessive debt or deficit, or balance does not meet...

This paper investigates the use of dynamic factor model for forecasting headline and core inflation as well as food price index in Poland. Method applied in the study extend conventional approaches by using bayesian techniques to dynamic factors' estimation, way of handling "ragged edge" data...

This paper presents the Econometric Model of Public Finance, eMPF. The model has been developed and maintained at the Polish Ministry of Finance to facilitate forecasting process, especially for the budget and convergence programme purposes, and to deliver scenario analyses. We present the...

Reguły fiskalne są jednym z narzędzi zapobiegających narastaniu nadmiernego długu publicznego. W dokumentach rządowych Polska zapowiedziała wprowadzenie trwałej reguły wydatkowej, której zadaniem będzie stabilizacja w średnim okresie salda sektora instytucji rządowych i...

It is commonly argued that Poland avoided a massive drop in output during the 2008/2009 economic crisis in part thanks to substantial nominal zloty's depreciation against the euro. The Polish case is often contrasted with Slovakia that adopted the euro in January 2009 and, since the Ecofin...

We develop a framework for assessing the welfare implications of the new EU's Excessive Imbalance Procedure (EIP) to be implemented in 2012, with a special focus on the current account (CA) constraint. For this purpose, we apply a New Keynesian 2-region, 2-sector DSGE model, using the second...

The euro area bond yield spreads have largely converged since the beginning of the EMU. However, during the crisis most eurozone members reported dramatic rise in government bond yield differentials to German Bunds due to deteriorating public finance and liquidity conditions as well as increase...

This paper provides an extensive survey of literature on the euro area crisis from the perspective of a candidate country. A mix of country-specific and systemic factors emerge from our analysis, suggesting that a stable participation in the monetary union requires that both country-level and...

We investigate the determinants of support for the euro adoption in Poland in 2009 and 2010. Using two unique survey datasets, collected in December 2009 and June 2010, we estimate ordered and unordered logit models explaining the respondents' attitude to the introduction of the common currency....