We use the longest span data that have ever been studied before (from 1870 to 2014) to investigate the relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity in the United States. In the context of a bivariate (identified) structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR in real output growth and...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), driven by unit labor costs has been criticized for failing to match inflation dynamics and for explaining the duration of price contracts. This paper extends recent attempts in the literature to improve the fit of the NKPC, by introducing a fuller...

We use the returns on lottery-like stocks to construct a novel index for investor sentiment in the stock market. This new measure is closely related to previously developed sentiment indicators, but more accurately tracks speculative episodes over the sample period. Using our index, we find that...