In this paper we will investigate the consequences of applying the sieve bootstrap under regularity conditions that are sufficiently general to encompass both fractionally integrated and non-invertible processes. The sieve bootstrap is obtained by approximating the data generating process by an...

Several studies advocating safety first as a major concern to investors propose downside beta risk as an alternative to the traditional systematic risk-beta. Downside measures are concerned with a subset of the data and therefore the results in the studies that consider the downside beta only...

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers published in these...

The state space approach to modelling univariate time series is now widely used both in theory and in applications. However, the very richness of the framework means that quite different model formulations are possible, even when they purport to describe the same phenomena. In this paper, we...

The paper compares two alternative techniques for the modelling of the determinants of sovereign ratings, specifically, ordered probit and case-based reasoning. Despite the differences in approach the two alternative modelling approaches produce similar results in terms of which variables are...

We discuss and compare measures of accuracy of univariate time series forecasts. The methods used in the M-competition and the M3-competition, and many of the measures recommended by previous authors on this topic, are found to be inadequate, and many of them are degenerate in commonly occurring...

Nelson and Startz (Econometrica, 58, 1990), Maddala and Jong (Econometrica, 60, 1992) and Wolgrom (Econometrica, 69, 2001) have shown that the density of the two-stage least squares estimator may be bimodal in a just identified structural equation. This paper further investigates the conditions...

Poskitt and Skeels (2003) provide a new approximation to the sampling distribution of the IV estimator in a simultaneous equations model, the approximation is appropriate when the concentration parameter associated with the reduced form model is small. A basic purpose of this paper is to provide...

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimation of semi-linear regression models. Using invariance arguments, Bhowmik and King (2001) have derived the probability density functions of the maximal invariant statistic for the nonlinear component of these models. Using these density functions...

Autoregressive models are commonly employed to analyze empirical time series. In practice, however, any autoregressive model will only be an approximation to reality and in order to achieve a reasonable approximation and allow for full generality the order of the autoregression, h say, must be...