Fluctuations in commodity prices are a major concern to many market participants. This paper uses realized volatility methods to calculate daily volatility and correlation estimates for three grain futures prices (corn, soybean and wheat). The realized volatility estimates exhibit the properties...

We propose a new method for forecasting age-specific mortality and fertility rates observed over time. Our approach allows for smooth functions of age, is robust for outlying years due to wars and epidemics, and provides a modelling framework that is easily adapted to allow for constraints and...

This paper investigates the effect of aggregation and non-linearity in relation to television rating forecasts. Several linear models for aggregated and disaggregated television viewing have appeared in the literature. The current analysis extends this work using an empirical approach. We...

The average exponential tests for structural change of Andrews and Ploberger (Econometrica, 62, 1994) and Andrews, Lee and Ploberger (Journal of Econometrics 70, 1996) and modifications thereof maximize a weighted average power which incorporates specific weighting functions in order to make the...

We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In general, use structured methods and avoid intuition, unstructured meetings, focus groups, and data...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of a range of alternative single-factor continuous time models for the Australian short-term interest rate. The models are indexed by the level effect parameter for the volatility in the short rate process. The inferential approach adopted is Bayesian,...

A new approach is proposed for forecasting a time series with multiple seasonal patterns. A state space model is developed for the series using the single source of error approach which enables us to develop explicit models for both additive and multiplicative seasonality. Parameter estimates...

This paper investigates association between portfolio returns and higher-order systematic co-moments at different timescales obtained through wavelet multi-scaling- a technique that decomposes a given return series into different timescales enabling investigation at different return intervals....

This paper looks at the connection between internal migration and unemployment in South Africa. We examine whether rural-urban migrants are more likely to be unemployed, in informal sector employment or underemployed than non-migrants. We build on standard economic theory to predict that rates...

Rapid growth in heavy-tailed claim severity in commercial liability insurance requires insurer response by way of flexible mechanisms to update premiums. To this end in this paper a new premium principle is established for heavy-tailed claims, and its properties investigated. Risk-neutral...