Smooth-transition autoregressive (STAR) models, competitors of Markov-switching models, are limited by an assumed time-invariant threshold level. We augment the STAR model with a time-varying threshold that can be interpreted as a 'tipping level' where the mean and dynamics of the VAR shift....

Dictators, even those who seize power with the intention of helping the nation, frequently morph over time into tyrants. There may be many reasons for this. This paper focuses on one interesting and arguably pervasive driver behind this process. A model is developed which shows that the series...

We consider Tullock contests where contestants can be divided into a finite set of types according to their strategy cost function. Solving such contests is intractable if the number of players is finite but large and there are nonlinearities and asymmetries present. But by approximating the...

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments offered financial incentives to increase vaccine uptake. We evaluate the impact on COVID-19 vaccine uptake of cash equivalents versus being entered into lotteries. We randomly assign 1628 unvaccinated US participants into one of three 45-second...

The influence of misinformation on the political decision-making process became a major concern in the United States after the 2016 Presidential election. We study the impact of "fake news" in the 2020 election cycle by conducting an online experiment the day before the "Super Tuesday" primary...

Informal caring is associated with many negative outcomes. COVID-19 caused societal disruption, which may have disproportionately impacted carers. Reducing inequalities requires knowing whether, and how, carers were impacted. COVID-19 Understanding Society survey participants who were informal...

Nudging is a burgeoning topic in science and in policy, but evidence on the effectiveness of nudges among differentially incentivized groups is lacking. This paper exploits regional variations in the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine in Sweden to examine the effect of a nudge on groups whose...

This article discusses the links between climate and debt sustainability by focusing on how climate mitigation and adaptation are paid for, and who pays for it. This requires thinking about instruments such as sovereign bonds, carbon credits, conditional official grants and debt relief from both...

We discuss reasons why traditional rural communities may be reluctant to voluntarily relinquish their access to land despite being compensated at market prices, thereby limiting the scope for reallocating land to more productive uses in agriculture or urban development. Owing to financial market...

Designing policy for global warming requires an integrated analysis of the interplay between the economy and the environment. The consensus is growing that, despite their dominance in the economics literature and their influence in public discussion and policymaking, the methodology employed so...