The recent changes in the national accounts unequivocally imply that the nature of measured growth and the business cycle has changed. This note investigates to what extent. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Estimated real returns on nominal bonds show excess returns of some 200 bp over their index--linked equivalent. This paper considers two possible explanations for this large difference. First, we assess the likely inflation risk premium by calibrating a model of optimal bond prices under...

This paper estimates a consumption function for Belgium that allows for government debt discounting and for the overall discounting of the future (reflecting the consumers' planning horizon or precautionary savings). It also allows for substitutability or complementarity effects from government...

Linear predictability of stock market returns has been widely reported. However, recently developed theoretical research has suggested that due to the interaction of noise and arbitrage traders, stock returns are inherently non-linear, whereby market dynamics differ between small and large...

To date, studies of wealth effects on consumption have mainly used aggregate wealth definitions on a single-country basis. This study seeks to break new ground by analysing disaggregated financial wealth in consumption functions for G7 countries. Contrary to earlier empirical work, we find that...

Bayesian model selection with posterior probabilities and no subjective prior information is generally not possible because of the Bayes factors being ill-defined. Using careful consideration of the parameter of interest in cointegration analysis and a re-specification of the triangular model of...

This paper estimates the effects of family background, resources and institutions on mathematics and science performance using an international database of more than 260,000 students from 39 countries which includes extensive background information at the student, teacher, school and system...

Improving the quality of state-funded secondary school education has become a major policy aim in the UK. However, without a valuation of the social benefits derived from public provision of educational services, the rational evaluation of policy to this end is difficult. Utilizing the argument...

This paper presents estimates of the components of the dynamics of the unemployment outflow rate with British data. We allow both the composition of the inflow and individual duration dependence to vary over the business cycle.We find the inflow composition to be strongly countercyclical....

This paper presents a novel micro-econometric procedure that identifies the extent to which occupational choices are distorted by opportunities for tax evasion. Previous studies claim to have found significant and substantial effects, but analysis and replication of their methods reveals that...