This paper examines the effects on short-term interest rates of stabilizing the Irish pound in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System since 1986. It is shown that Irish interest rates came increasingly under the influence of German rates but British rates continued to exert...

This paper evaluates estimates of the variance of U.S. inflation based on popular conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models, by comparing them with the variances of subjective probability distributions for inflation provided in the ASA-NBER surveys of U.S. economic forecasters. The results...

This analysis finds that the spot and forward Australian dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rates are separated by a risk premium while information or new variables have no impact on this contemporaneous forecast error. The model is fitted to daily Australian data on spot and forward exchange rates in...

This paper presents a critical comparison of four of the major, and more influential, models explaining strike activity: strike activity and associated costs (Reder and Neumann), incomplete information (Ashenfelter and Johnson), asymmetric information (Hayes), and a world-wise approach (Tracy)....

This study examines the finite-sample bias of S. Johansen's likelihood ratio tests for cointegration using the Monte Carlo method. Response surface analysis is employed to obtain approximations to the finite-sample critical values and illustrate the individual roles of the sample size, the...

Empirical work on the effects of trade union power on economic variables such as wages, employment, productivity, and technological and organizational change has been severely hampered by the problems associated with quantifying union power, which is, by its nature, unobservable. Typically proxy...

Much of the literature on market integration in developing countries focuses on spatial price differentials for a single commodity. This study adapts M. Ravallion's (1986) model of dynamic integration to a multicommodity framework. Moreover, it uses cointegration models to explore how a single...

This paper uses time-series methods to analyze the changing relationship between unemployment, real wages, and productivity. Most economic models of the labor market, such as bargaining, search, contract, and efficiency wage theories, justify a relationship between these three variables. Only...

This paper investigates empirically the relationship between the demand for real money balances and its determinants in Greece. The relationship under scrutiny is analyzed in the context of a small system involving money, prices, income, and interest rates using a recently proposed modeling...