type="main" xml:id="obes12052-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>In this article, we try to realize the best compromise between in-sample goodness of fit and out-of-sample predictability of sovereign defaults. To do this, we use a new regression-tree based approach that signals impending sovereign debt crises...</p>

type="main" xml:id="obes12059-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>We partially identify the average treatment effect of education on earnings and non-parametrically estimate its upper bound for African, Coloured (mixed race) and White males in South Africa. We address endogenous selection into education, cohort...</p>

type="main" xml:id="obes12054-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>In mature democracies, elections discipline leaders to deliver good economic performance. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, most developing countries also hold elections, but these are often marred by illicit tactics. Using a new global data...</p>

type="main" xml:id="obes12050-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>First-differencing is generally taken to imply the loss of one observation, the first, or at least that the effect of ignoring this observation is asymptotically negligible. However, this is not always true, as in the case of generalized least...</p>

type="main" xml:id="obes12049-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>Capital-labour substitution and total factor productivity (TFP) estimates are essential features of many economic models. Such models typically embody a balanced growth path. This often leads researchers to estimate models imposing stringent prior...</p>