type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>We comprehensively analyse the long-run effect of foreign aid (ODA) on key macroeconomic variables in 36 sub-Saharan African countries from the mid-1960s to 2007, using a well-specified cointegrated VAR model as statistical benchmark. Results provide broad...</p>

type="main" xml:id="obes12024-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>In this article we study the social norms to abstain from cheating on the state via benefit fraud and tax evasion. We interpret these norms (called benefit morale and tax morale) as moral goods, and derive testable hypotheses on whether their...</p>

type="main" xml:id="obes12035-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of linear and nonlinear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR) and smooth transition...</p>

type="main" xml:id="obes12032-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>This article explores the comovement of the economic activity of several OECD countries during periods of large negative and positive growth. Extremal dependence measures are here applied to assess the degree of cross-country tail dependence of...</p>

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>In this article, we investigate the validity of the univariate autoregressive sieve bootstrap applied to time series panels characterized by general forms of cross-sectional dependence, including but not restricted to cointegration. Using the final equations...</p>

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>This article analyzes how monetary policy has responded to exchange rate movements in six open economies, paying particular attention to the two-way interaction between monetary policy and the exchange rate. We address this issue using a structural VAR model...</p>

type="main" xml:id="obes12029-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>The job search literature suggests that on-the-job search reduces the probability of un employed people finding jobs. However, there is little evidence that employed and unemployed job seekers are similar or apply for the same jobs. We compare...</p>

type="main" xml:id="obes12030-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>This article estimates peer influences on the alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use of UK adolescents. We present evidence of large, positive and statistically significant peer effects in all three behaviours when classmates are taken as the reference...</p>

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>Ordinary fan charts consist of symmetric marginal forecast intervals, and do not take into consideration the concrete loss function of the user of the forecast. The note shows how to build fan charts that have exact joint coverage even under asymmetric loss,...</p>

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>Combined density nowcasts for quarterly Euro-area GDP growth are produced based on the real-time performance of component models. Components are distinguished by their use of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’, aggregate and disaggregate, indicators. We consider the...</p>