In this paper we question the consensus of using a binary crisis definition for empirical crisis models. We believe that the most severe shortcomings of the crisis models today are in the crisis definition rather than the explanatory variables. We present a crisis model that is specified for a...

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...

Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence,...

The divergence between increasingly supranational financial markets on the one hand and still largely national supervisory structures on the other gives rise to tensions which reduce the effectiveness of the supervision. It lies in the interests of both the public and the private sector that the...

From a macroeconomic perspective the term "new economy" describes a phenomenon of persistent strong and low-inflation growth due to the large diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT). This paper looks into Europe's position with respect to the new-economy phenomenon. Section...

In this paper we want to discuss macroscopic and microscopic properties of financial markets. By analyzing quantitatively a database consisting of 13 minute per minute recorded financial time series, we identify some macroscopic statistical properties of the corresponding markets, with a special...