We present a model of bilateral real exchange rate determination based on different theories that can be combined into a common statistical framework. Although eclectic, the approach is successfully used to shape a final specification which performs surprisingly well when out of sample exercises...

The integration of fuzzy logic systems and neural networks in data driven nonlinear modeling applications has generally been limited to functions based upon the multiplicative fuzzy implication rule for theoretical and computational reasons. We derive a universal approximation result for the...

Overnight Federal funds and overnight Eurodollars are among the most liquid short-term assets that a bank can hold to acquire required reserves. They are traded overnight and denominated in U.S. dollars. They also have different characteristics: The Fed funds market and the Eurodollar market are...

We analyze the properties of multiperiod forecasts which are formulated by a number of companies for a fixed horizon ahead which moves each month one period closer and are collected and diffused each month by some polling agency. Some descriptive evidence and a formal model suggest that knowing...

The purpose of this paper is to describe the process of maintaining and updating POLIMOD. It is mainly intended as a reference document, internal to the Microsimulation Unit. However, it may be of wider interest (a) as background information for POLIMOD users or (b) as a guide to all the...

One of the Gordon Brown's keywords as Chancellor over the last two years has been fairness. In this paper we examine the impact of the recent budget and the two previous budgets on the distribution of household incomes in the country as a whole. We ask the following questions: - Have Labourís...

Proposals for reforming the current system of taxes and transfers with a basic income and flat tax have received considerable attention in recent years in the UK and Ireland. Microsimulation models have played a central role in the formulation, the assessment, and the reformulation of these...