In this paper we examine the predictability power of long term risk premium over Housing prices in U.S.A. of a period of 19 years (1991-2009). For reasons that are cited clearly in the text, the interest rate risk premium is preferred over yield curve. Under a probit framework, it is tested...

We perform non-linearity tests using daily data for leading currencies that include the Australian dollar, British pound, Brazilian real, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Mexican peso, and the Swiss franc to resolve the issue of whether these currencies are driven by fundamentals or...

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the U.K.). The data used range from 1991:Q1 to 2009:Q1. For...

This paper develops and equilibrium search and matching model with informal sector employment opportunities and educational choice. We show that informal sector job opportunities distort educational attainment inducing a too low stock of educated workers. As informal job opportunities to a...

We study the evolution of the global arms trade network using a unique dataset on all international transfers of major conventional weapons over the period 1950-2007. First, we provide a careful description of the characteristics of global arms trade using tools from social network analysis....

A data set consisting of 25 forecasts (1999–2005) by Sveriges Riksbank (RB) and 18 forecasts (2001–2005) by Konjunkturinstitutet (KI) for Swedish inflation rates measured as CPI and KPIX.

This paper analyzes the location of manufacturing activities when regional policy is determined by each region’s relative propensity to vote. Once voting over government transfers to regions is included in an economic geography framework with size asymmetries, the standard prediction that the...

This paper analyzes the effects of different corporate tax systems on the location of industry within an economic geography model with regional size asymmetries. Both the North and the South gain industry by adopting a tax regime that produces the lowest tax level. As the share of expenditures...

Are Sveriges Riksbank's inflation (CPI and KPIX) interval forecasts calibrated in the sense that the intervals cover realised inflation with the stated ex ante coverage probabilities 50, 75 and 90 percent? In total 150 interval forecast 1999:Q2-2005:Q2 are assessed for CPI and KPIX. The main...

This paper focuses on the impact of hidden information on strategic interaction in the context of trade agreements. In the presence of informational asymmetry it is possible that a tradeoff between liberalization and sustainability of cooperation emerges. It is shown that it may be optimal to...