This study investigates whether information about Chief Executive Officer (CEO) incentives is useful for predicting future earnings. We find that in companies with higher CEO equity incentives, current year earnings are more informative of future earnings than in other companies. Additionally,...

This paper presents evidence that management’s disclosure choices related to a restatement are associated with the market reaction at the time the restatement is announced. The two aspects of pre-restatement disclosure choice we examine are the amount of disclosure, hypothesized to reduce...

In this paper, we analyze the accuracy of the copula-GARCH and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models for forecasting the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of bivariate portfolios. We then try to answer two questions: First, does the correlation-based DCC model outperform the...

We propose a trading strategy based on error correction term (ECT), the residuals from the cointegration relation between the levels of security and the market portfolio. We find that buying stocks in the top 10 % ECT and selling stocks in the bottom 10 % ECT generates 1.09 % a month for...

In this paper we introduce a new financial product named Outperformance Certificates. We study the €43 billion sample by examining 1,507 issues of the certificates outstanding in August 2005 issued by banks in Europe. We present formulas to price the certificates and empirically examine the...

This paper analyzes the term structure of interest rates in an exchange-only Lucas (Econometrica 46:1429–1445, <CitationRef CitationID="CR32">1978</CitationRef>) economy where consumers learn about a stochastic growth rate through observations of the endowment process and an external public signal. We allow for deluded consumers, who...</citationref>

The popular logit model is extended to allow for varying stochastic parameters (mixed logit) and non-linearities of regressor variables while analysing a cross-sectional sample of German corporate credit defaults. With respect to economic interpretability and goodness of probability forecasts...

Risk management has attracted a great deal of attention, and Value at Risk (VaR) has emerged as a particularly popular and important measure for detecting the market risk of financial assets. The quantile regression method can generate VaR estimates without distributional assumptions; however,...