This paper compares the goods and characteristics models of the consumer within a traditional demand framework.  We examine the nonparametric revealed preference conditions for the goods and characteristics models, and we develop a methodology for testing nested models of this class using...

Urbanization has been extensively used as a proxy for economic activity.  The urban status of settlements is usually determined by an ad hoc population size household.  This paper proposes a new threshold, taking into account the effect of local agricultural endowments.  The new population...

Fiscal councils now exist in a number of countries.  This paper first considers the extent of deficit bias, potential explanations for it, and how independent institutions could help reduce it.  Are fiscal councils complements to or substitutes for fiscal rules, and why do none at  present...

Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur.  Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors.  This analysis shows that a valid model can...

The apparent success of independent central banks in conducting monetary policy has led many to argue that some form of policy delegation should also be applied to the macroeconomic aspects of fiscal policy.  A number of countries have recently established Fiscal Councils, although their role...

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break.  To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish...

This paper introduces a new dataset of French investments in foreign securities.  This is the most detailed data available to date.  The data is used to study the composition, valuation, and total return of the French portfolio of non-sovereign foreign securities on the 34 years before World...

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions.  We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated...

We develop forecast-error taxonomies when there are unmodeled variables, forecast 'off-line'.  We establish three surprising results.  Even when an open system is correctly specified in-sample with zero intercepts, despite known future values of strongly exogenous variables, changes in...

This paper develops a model in which supply of a non-renewable resource can adjust through two margins: the rate of depletion and the rate of field opening.  Faster depletion of existing fields means that less of the resource can ultimately be extracted, and optimal depletion of open fields...