The behavior of the dollar/euro exchange rate is modeled using a monetary model of the exchange rate. The econometric analysis is complicated by the short sample span of actual euro data available for analysis. Hence, data on a synthetic euro are used. The assumptions underlying the monetary...

In this article we model the log of the U.S. and the U.K. real oil prices in terms of fractionally integrated processes with a mean shift. We use different versions of the tests of Robinson (1994), which have standard null and local limit distributions. The results indicate that if we model the...

Competition in some markets is a contest. This paper studies the merger incentives in such markets. Merger can be profitable. The profitability depends on the post-merger contest structure, the discriminatory power of the contest and on the number of contestants.

We consider an investor maximizing his expected utility from terminal wealth with portfolio decisions based on the available information flow. This investor faces the opportunity to acquire some additional initial information G.. The subjective fair value of this information for the investor is...

People dislike inflation because inflation erodes the real value of future nominal income and wealth. Adjustment of future nominal values via a cost of living index is an appropriate way to handle the problem of real income risk. Nonetheless an important aspect needs more discussion: If markets...

Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

The conditions under which European monetary policy is likely to be conducted are investigated by means of multi-variate time series modelling using aggregated data of all eleven European Monetary Union member states. A cointegration analysis identifies two stable long-run relationships within a...

We derive an asymptotic theory of nonparametric estimation for an nonlinear transfer function model Z(t) = f (Xt) + Wt where {Xt} and {Zt} are observed nonstationary processes and {Wt} is a stationary process. IN econometrics this can be interpreted as a nonlinear cointegration type...

To be represented by more than one contestant in a contest has advantages and disadvantages. This paper determines the conditions under which it is favorable to send several agents into the contest.

Tests for unit roots and other nonstationary hypotheses that were proposed by Robinson (1994) are applied in this article to the Nelson and Plosser's (1982) series. The tests can be expressed in a way allowing for structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. When...