The annual structure of the real GDP in the UK, France, Germany and Italy is examined in this article by means of fractionally integrated techniques. Using a version of a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994), we show that the series can be specified in terms of I(d) statistical models with d...

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

We show in this article that fractionally integrated univariate models for GDP may lead to a better replication of business cycle characteristics. We firstly show that the business cycle features are clearly affected by the degree of integration as well as by the other short run components of...

Consider a d-dimensional Brownian motion X (Xl, ... ,Xd ) and a function F which belongs locally to the Sobolev space W 1,2. We prove an extension of Ito's formula where the usual second order terms are replaced by the quadratic covariations [fk(X), Xkj involving the weak first partial...

We review an asymmetric auction experiment. Based on Plum (1992) private valuations of the two bidders are independently drawn from distinct but commonly known distributions, one of which stochastically dominating the other. We test the qualitative properties of that model of asymmetric...

We propose in this article a joint test for testing simultaneously a deterministic trend component and the degree of integration of the cyclical component in a given time series. The test is directly derived from Robinson's (1994) procedure, which is based on the Lagrange Multiplier (LM)...

A number of unit root tests which accommodate a deterministic level shift at a known point in time are compared in a Monte Carlo study. The tests differ in the way they treat the deterministic term of the DGP. It turns out that Phillips-Perron type tests have very poor small sample properties...

We study the long run behaviour of interactive Markov chains on infinite product spaces. In view of microstructure models of financial markets, the interaction has both a local and a global component. The convergence of such Markov chains is analyzed on the microscopic level and on the...