This paper entertains the notion that disturbances on the demand side play a central role in our understanding of the Great Depression. In fact, from Euler equation residuals we are able to identify a series of unusually large negative demand shocks that appeared to have hit the U. S. economy...

We consider a financial market model with a large number of interacting agents. Investors are heterogeneous in their expectations about the future evolution of an asset price process. Their current expectation is based on the previous states of their neighbors and on a random signal about the...

We compare the standard one-bid first price auction to a corresponding two-bid first price auction where each buyer may place two bids: a high bid and a low one and the winner pays his low bid if this was higher than all other bids. We characterize the equilibria of the two mechanisms and prove...

In 2001, the Fed has lowered interest rates in a series of cuts, starting from 6.5 % at the end of 2000 to 2.0 % by early November. This paper asks, whether the Federal Reserve Bank has been surprising the markets, taking as given the conventional view about the effect of monetary policy shocks....

This paper improves previous sufficient conditions for stationarity obtained in the context of a general nonlinear vector autoregressive model with nonlinear autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. The results are proved by using the stability theory developed for Markov chains....

In infinite horizon economies only local equivalence of beliefs is needed to ensure the existence of an Arrow-Debreu equilibrium. In fact, agents can even disagree completely in the long run in the sense that asymptotically, their beliefs are singular.

We propose a new estimator for nonparametric regression based on local likelihood estimation using an estimated error score function obtained from the residuals of a preliminary nonparametric regression. We show that our estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible local maximum...

The second-generation GSM spectrum auction in Germany is probably the most clear cut example of a low price outcome in a simultaneous ascending-bid auction. The present paper gives an account of the events, describes the auction rules and market conditions, and provides a theoretical explanation...

This paper discusses the admissibility of agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms with respect to space distortion and monotonicity, as defined by Yadohisa et al. and Batagelj, respectively. Several admissibilities and their properties are given for selecting a clustering algorithm....

How risky are investments in residential real estate? To answer this question, information is needed about the behavior of house prices. The hedonic methodology has become a standard approach for modelling the prices of heterogeneous assets. Although intuitively appealing, it is often criticized...