A user interface is one of the most important factor's for deciding the usefulness of a statistical system. Nowadays, a graphical user interface (GUI) is popular because it is easy and intuitive to use. A character user interface (CUI) is, however, still important for using full abilities of the...

This paper develops a new econometric tool for evolutionary autoregressive models where the AR coefficients change smoothly over time. To estimate the unknown functional form of time-varying coefficients, we propose a mdified local linear smoother. The asymptotic normality and variance of the...

Starting from the objective of banking supervision - to minimize the overall costs of banking to the general public - we show that the current standard of quantifying market risk is flawed. It is perfectly aligned with the interests of banks' shareholders and management, but not with the...

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...

Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during...

We propose a model of correlated multi-firm default with incomplete information. While public bond investors observe issuers' assets and defaults, we suppose that they are not informed about the threshold asset level at which a firm is liquidated. Bond investors form instead a prior on these...

We investigate (i) whether traders on an experimental asset market form different and separate mental accounts for sale revenues and for dividend earnings and whether (ii) an increase in tax penalty or (iii) an increase in audit frequency increases tax compliance. The results indicate that...

The problem of selecting a clustering algorithm from the myriad of algorithms has been discussed in recent years. Many researchers have attacked this problem by using the concept of admissibility (e.g. Fisher and Van Ness, 1971, Yadohisa, et al., 1999). We propose a new criterion called the...

We analyze daily changes of two log foreign exchange (FX) rates involving the Deutsche Mark (DEM) for the period 1975 - 1998, namely FX-rates measured against the US dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY). Ta account for volatility e1ustering we fit a GARCH(l,l)-model with leptokurtic...

In this work, we introduce a smoothed influence function that constitute a theoretical tool for studying the outliers robustness properties of a large class of nonparametric estimators. With this tool, we first show the nonrobustness of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator of regression. Then we show...