I present a simple model of an evolutionary financial market with heterogeneous agents, based on the concept of adaptive belief systems introduced by Brock and Hommes (1997a). Agents choose between different forecast rules based on past performance, resulting in an evolutionary dynamics across...

A simple nonlinear structural model of endogenous belief heterogeneity is proposed. News about fundamentals is an IID random process, but nevertheless volatility clustering occurs as an endogenous phenomenon caused by the interaction between different types of traders, fundamentalists and...

A simple asset pricing model with two types of adaptively learning traders, fundamentalists and technical analysts, is studied. Fractions of these trader types, which are both boundedly rational, change over time according to evolutionary learning, with technical analysts conditioning their...

Attraction models are very popular in marketing research for studying the effects of marketing instruments on market shares. However, so far the marketing literature only considers attraction models with certain functional forms that exclude threshold or saturation effects on attraction values.(...)

In der vorliegenden empirischen Untersuchung erreichen Marktanteilsmodelle mit semi-parametrischen additiven Markenattraktionen bessere Anpassungsmaße sowohl nach einem Informationskriterium wie AIC, das ein Modell für die Anzahl verbrauchter Freiheitsgrade bestraft, als auch nach mittels...

This paper measures the performance of a Latent Class CBC model with aggregate real world scanning data.

Autoren-Abstract: This article considers three standard asset pricing models with adaptive agents and stochastic dividends. The models only differ in the parameters to be estimated. We assume that only limited information is used to construct estimators....

One of the central goals in finance is to find better models for pricing and hedging financial derivatives such as call and put options. We present a semi-nonparametric approach to risk-neutral density extraction from option prices which is based on an extension of the concept of mixture density...

Motivated by previous findings that discretization of financial time series can effectively filter the data and reduce the noise, this experimental study compares the trading performance of predictive models based on different modelling paradigms in a realistic setting. Different methods ranging...

Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). Empirical estimates for US data indicate that a two to three percent GDP growth rate above the natural or average GDP growth rate causes unemployment to decrease by...