This Paper seeks to trace the impact of monetary arrangements on trade integration and business cycle correlation, focusing on Europe in the late 19th century period as a guide for modern debates. For this purpose, we first estimate a gravity model and show that monetary arrangements were...

The impact of FDI on total factor productivity in Hungary during the 1990s' is assessed with a large enterprise panel. Foreign equity is associated with higher productivity levels and has a substantial, positive spillover effect on aggregate TFP growth. However, this benefit is significant only...

In this Paper we focus on the different historical regime experiences of the core and the periphery. Using conventional Feldstein-Horioka tests, but taking a more careful look at the panel properties of our sample, this Paper reports results which are consistent with the ‘Folk’ wisdom that...

Keynes' main concern in the General Theory is about the capacity of an economy to return to a full employment equilibrium when subject to a (negative) demand shock. He maintains that money wages cuts may not help reabsorb unemployment, as they do not necessarily imply a fall in real wages. On...

On the 30th of August, Governing Council of the ECB decided to lower the key interest rates by 25 basis points. May be this decision was the only available in view of the evolution of core inflation in Europe, but for reasons made clear below, it is not going to ease the fiscal debate in Europe....

Cette projection de l’économie française à l’horizon de cinq ans- 2006 en est le terme – a été réalisée par l’Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE) à l’aide de son modèle de simulation de l’économie française. Elle est de nature essentiellement...

With respects to my last briefing paper (november 2000), the economic outlook for the euro zone has evolved, but in a direction and in extent which remain uncertain. The fashionable world is “resilient”. Most forecasting institutes expect the euro area to be relatively resilient, with growth...

The September 11th attacks on the United States and the consequent combat against international terrorism have clouded the short-term outlook for the world economy. World economic growth had already slowed considerably from the final quarter of last year. This was in part the consequence of past...