The objective of this paper is to model and forecast all the components of a macro orbusiness variable. Our contribution concerns cases with a large number (hundreds) ofcomponents where multivariate approaches are not feasible. We extend in several directions the pairwise approach originally...

Financial returns often present a complex relation with previous observations, along with a slight skewness and high kurtosis. As a consequence, we must pursue the use of flexible models that are able to seize these special features: a financial process that can expose the intertemporal relation...

The identification of asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity is often based on samplecross-correlations between past and squared observations. In this paper we analyse theeffects of outliers on these cross-correlations and, consequently, on the identification ofasymmetric volatilities. We...

This paper designs a Particle Learning (PL) algorithm for estimation of Bayesian nonparametric Stochastic Volatility (SV) models for financial data. The performance of this particle method is then compared with the standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for non-parametric SV models. PL...

In this paper we propose a new class of asymmetric stochastic volatility (SV) models, which specifies the volatility as a function of the score of the distribution of returns conditional on volatilities based on the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model. Different specifications of the...

When forecasting conditional correlations that evolve according to a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model, only point forecasts can be obtained at each moment of time. In this paper, we analyze the finite sample properties of a bootstrap procedure to approximate the density of these...

We introduce SAGRA (Split And Group Recombining Algorithm), a cluster analysis methodology which split the data set into small homogeneous groups and later recombine those groups using Bayes factors. We compare the performance of SAGRA with other three cluster analysis algorithms: SAR, M-clust...

Combining multiple forecasts provides gains in prediction accuracy. Therefore, with the aim of finding an optimal weighting scheme, several combination techniques have been proposed in the forecasting literature. In this paper we propose the use of sparse partial least squares (SPLS) as a method...

This article provides a new test for sphericity of the covariance matrix of a d-dimensional multinormal population X ∼ Nd(µ,Σ). This test is applicable if the sample size, n + 1, and d both go to infinity while d/n → y ∈ (0,∞), provided that the limits of tr(Σk)/d, k = 1,...,8, are...

Drawing on Tinto’s dropout intentions model (1975), Bean’s socialization model (1985), Astin’s involvement theory (1999), and the service marketing literature, this research presents a conceptual framework for analyzing students’ satisfaction, perceived learning outcomes, and dropout...