The goal of this paper is to test for and model nonlinearities in several monthly exchange rates time series. We apply two different nonlinear alternatives, namely: the artificial neural network time series model estimated with Bayesian regularization and a flexible smooth transition...

This is a background note to a joint IPEA/World Bank Report, provisionally entitled "Selected Topics on Income Inequality in Brazil", with publication planned for 2001. The purpose of the note is twofold. First we propose four central questions which the Report should seek to address, and around...

This paper investigates the contagion from Russia to Brazil in late 1998 under two dimensions players involved and the timing of events. The data does not seem to reflect a compensatory liquidation of assets story by international institutional investors. It does contribute, however, to the...

This paper analyses the sustainability of fiscal policy in Brazil since the financial reform of 1965 and discusses how the relationship between the Treasury and the Central Bank has determined the federal government's capacity to finance itself. A sustainable policy is defined as one such that...

O presente trabalho objetiva analisar a inserção internacional do Sistema Agroalimentar - SAA do Mercosul, o qual vai se constituir na unidade de análise deste estudo. A hipótese central a ser desenvolvida é que a integração regional sofre de um problema estrutural em sua inserção...

This paper investigates how the Brazilian federal domestic debt responded to innovations in fiscal and financial components of the government's budget constraint. Using monthly data from 1981:01 to 1996:12, a parsimonious model is selected to describe the federal domestic debt and a vector...