We define a concept of status equilibrium for local public good economies. A status equilibrium specifies one status index for each agent in an economy. These indices determine agentsÂ’ cost shares in any possible jurisdiction. We provide an axiomatic charaterization of status equilibrium...

This paper identifies two channels through which the economy can generate endogenous inflation and output volatility, an empirical regularity, by introducing model uncertainty into a Lucas-type monetary model. The equilibrium path of inflation depends on agents' expectations and a vector of...

Several empirical studies have found a negative relationship between corruption and the decentralization of the powers to tax and spend. In this paper we explain this phenomenon using a model of Yardstick Competition. Using data on federal corruption-related convictions in U.S. states we propose...

We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forwardlooking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG...

This note explores the insidious empirical trap posed by two common equality restrictions in regression analysis. The trap is that restricted coefficients can lie outside the interval of unrestricted coefficients and even reverse sign when negatively correlated regressors are added to one...

We show that if policy-makers compute the optimal unconstrained interest-rate rule within a Taylor-type class, they may be led to rules that generate indeterminacy and/or instability under learning. This problem is compounded by uncertainty about structural parameters since an optimal rule that...

This paper explores from a new perspective the forward premium puzzle, i.e., why a regression of the change in the future spot exchange rate on the forward premium paradoxically yields a coefficient that is frequently negative. This traditional specification is compared theoretically and...

This is the text of an interview with Thomas J. Sargent. The interview will be published in Macroeconomic Dynamics.

We study how the use of judgement or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...

We develop a dynamic model of the exploitation of an environmental resource with endogenous property rights. We are able to explain both the evolution of property rights and environmental quality. In some circumstances the time path of environmental quality is U-shaped and resembles an...