Annual changes in volatility of U.S. real output growth and inflation are documented in data from 1870 to 2009 using a time varying parameter VAR model. Both volatilities rise quickly with World War I and its aftermath, stay relatively high until the end of World War II and drop rapidly until...

Changes in volatility of output growth and inflation are examined for eight countries with at least 140 years of uninterrupted data. Time-varying parameter vector autoregressions are used to estimate standard deviations of each variable. Both volatilities rise quickly with World War I and its...

This paper studies Blanchard and Quah’s (1989) statistical model of permanent and transitory shocks to output using a set of arguably more plausible structural assumptions. Economists typically motivate this statistical model by assuming aggregate demand shocks have no long-run effect on the...

This paper studies games with both strategic substitutes and strategic complements, and more generally, games with strategic heterogeneity (GSH). Such games may behave differ- ently from either games with strategic complements or games with strategic substitutes. Under mild assumptions (on one...

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005). We find that the open economy framework brings about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters related to...

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Clarida, Gali and Gertler (2002). We find that the open economy framework can bring about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters...

This paper analyzes games with both strategic substitutes and strategic complements. Such games may behave differently from either games with strategic complements or games with strategic substitutes. In such games, equilibria do not decrease as the parameter increases. Moreover, natural...

Recently there has been a growing tendency to impose curvature, but not monotonicity, on specifications of technology. But regularity requires satisfaction of both curvature and monotonicity conditions. Without both satisfied, the second order conditions for optimizing behavior fail and duality...

In a recent paper, we studied bifurcation phenomena in continuous time macroeconometric models. The objective was to explore the relevancy of Grandmont's (1985) findings to models permitting more reasonable elasticities than were possible in Grandmont's Cobb Douglas overlapping generations...

In aggregation theory, index numbers are judged relative to their ability to track the exact aggregator functions nested within the economy’s structure. Within the monetary sector, Barnett, Liu, and Jensen (1997) compared two statistical index numbers: the Divisia monetary aggregate and the...