We employ the WTO Global Trade Model (GTM) to generate quantitative projections on the expected long-run impact of digitalization on global trade patterns. Five trends are modelled: (i) adoption of artificial intelligence which raises productivity growth; (ii) digitalization reducing trade...

This paper examines the evolution of global merchandise trade, between 2010 and 2022, assessing the share of imports subject to regional trade agreements (RTAs). A key question for us is whether the share of merchandise trade subject to preferences has kept pace with the proliferation in RTAs....

The Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) principle has historically been instrumental in promoting stability and equitable trade conditions. In recent decades there has been a rise in bilateral and regional trade agreements, which deviate from the MFN principle in providing more favourable tariff...

This paper explores the application of Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to automate Harmonized System (HS) tariff line transposition, employing a three-stage process: unique 1:1 tariff code matching (Round 1), exact description matching (Round 2), and "smart" description matching...

Policies that affect t he c ost o f u sing f ossil f uels i n p roduction h ave a complex impact on the economy. In this paper, we focus on the role of these policies for the pattern of comparative advantage through their effect o n p roduction c osts in manufacturing industries. Using data on...

In this paper, we project the impact of the implementation of a Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) on Services Domestic Regulation (SDR). We proceed in three steps. First, we include the WTO SDR Index, a binary score of SDR implementation in 23 sectors and 86 economies, in a gravity equation,...

This paper studies the under-explored yet critical role of WTO's regular bodies, particularly focusing on the discussions of "trade concerns" within the Goods Council, its subsidiary bodies, as well as the General Council. These discussions are pivotal for the governance of international trade...

We use panel data for listed firms from China for 2013-2021 to examine the association between their export earnings and trade finance, particularly those receiving trade loans. Results show that a percent increase in trade finance loan is associated with 0.067-0.083 percent increase in export...

This paper studies the impact of the process of accession to the WTO on growth rates in a sample of 150 economies. Unlike GATT-era accessions, WTO accessions involve reforms that extend beyond conventional trade liberalization measures. Using information on the pace of negotiations and requests...

We show that climate policy can unlock large environmental gains from trade by inducing economies to specialize according to their environmental comparative advantage. We make this point by exploring the effects of a carbon tax in a quantitative trade model. Our main result is that the...