A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to classify an out of sample <p> observation vector into either of two regimes. This leads to a procedure for making probability forecasts for changes of regimes in a time series, i.e. for turning points. <p> Instead o maximizing a likelihood, the model is estimated...</p></p>

Using data from 17 countries that have suffered a currency crisis, this paper studies firm-level leverage and performance measures before and after a crisis has occurred. We show that in the years preceding a currency crisis, companies that are expected to benefit from currency depreciations...

This paper traces the development of Bertil Ohlin's views on issues such as the causes of the depression of the 1930's, policies against the depression, the use of fiscal and monetary policies, and tariffs and public works to stabilize the business cycle. We examine about 80 of his articles on...

This paper attempts to make an innovative contribution to the growth literature by proposing a trade-induced catch up model in which imitation benefit is explicitly modelled and trade knowledge spillover is considered. The resulting income dynamics is in the error correction form. The Pooled...

To the surprise of many, price deviations between markets characterized by imperfect competition have often been little affected by lower transport costs. In a Cournot model we show that if firms' decisions to segment markets are endogenous, then lower transport costs are, in many cases,...

Under de senaste åren har ett stort antal svenska företag övergått i utländsk ägo eller fusionerats med utländska företag. Samtidigt har den utländska ägarandelen på börsen ökat snabbt. Är detta endast en naturlig del av den pågående internationaliseringen eller förstärks...

A leader of an organization may view a subordinate as threatening or weakening the leader's position. The threat may increase with the subordinate's ability and reduce the rents the leader wins. In particular, a leader who trains his subordinate reduces the cost to the owner of a firm in...

A structural rational expectations model of U.S. monetary policy is used to make a counterfactual experiment of a strongly inflation averse Federal Reserve Bank. Results for U.S. interest rates, output, and inflation over 1965-1999 are discussed.