Empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the predictability of inflation at long horizons varies considerably across countries. Both simple theory and empirical evidence suggest that the crucial factor is the extent to which systematic monetary policy succeeds in stabilising the...

In finance theory, the standard deviation of asset returns is almost universally recognised as a measure of risk. This universality continues to exist even in the presence of the known limitations of using the standard deviation and also alternative risk measures. One possible reason for this...