We use a supply-demand framework to model the hourly day-ahead spot price of electricity based on publicly available information. With the model we can forecast the level and the probability of a spike in the spot price de¯ned as the spot price being above a certain threshold. Several European...

This paper considers a buyer-seller contracting model in which the seller possesses private information about all relevant aspects of the state of nature, including how much each action is worth to the buyer. We argue that, given asymmetric information, the buyer may not entirely dismiss an...

In the recent years, banks have sold structured products such as Worst-of options, Everest and Himalayas, resulting in a short correlation exposure. They have hence become interested in offsetting part of this exposure, namely buying back correlation. Two ways have been proposed for such a...

The multiple applications matching function derived in Albrecht, Gautier, Tan and Vroman (2004) involves terms which are very “convoluted”. This letter proposes an alternative more concise function, derived using applicant types as the source of randomness rather than the resulting...

Developed countries increasingly rely on gas storage for security of supply. Widespread deregulation has created markets that help assign an objective value to existing and new to build storages. Storage valuation is nevertheless a challenging task if we consider both the financial and physical...

The understanding of joint asset return distributions is an important ingredient for managing risks of portfolios. While this is a well-discussed issue in fixed income and equity markets, it is a challenge for energy commodities. In this paper we are concerned with describing the joint return...

This paper develops a model of directed-search where workers’ preference for a higher wage is explicitly modelled into their application strategy. In a general setting where jobs offer non-uniform wages and different probabilities of a job offer, the optimal strategy for selecting the set of...

This paper conducts a systematic investigation into the correlation between the default rate and three definitions of the recovery rate: price recoveries, settlement recoveries and discounted settlement recoveries. The data suggests a strong linear correlation for price recoveries and a weak one...