This paper uses a small data-consistent model of the United States to identify and estimate the Federal Reserve's policy preferences. We find critical differences between the policy regimes in operation during the Burns-Miller and Volcker-Greenspan periods. Over the Volcker-Greenspan period we...

Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997. During this sample a large number of countries left currency unions; they experienced economically and statistically significant...

We examine whether equity market variables, such as stock returns and equity-based default probabilities, are useful to bank supervisors for assessing the condition of bank holding companies. Using an event study framework, we find that equity market variables anticipate supervisory ratings...

This paper uses the stochastic econometric cost frontier approach to investigate the cost efficiency of commercial banks in Hong Kong. On average, the X-efficiency of Hong Kong banks is found to be about 16 to 30 percent of observed total costs, which is comparable to the findings in the U.S....

This paper develops algorithms that solve for optimal discretionary and optimal pre-commitment policies in rational-expectations models. The techniques developed are simpler to apply than existing methods; they do not require identifying and separating predetermined variables from jump...

Two factors are likely to cause the debate surrounding disability policy to intensify over the next decade. First, the protracted period of economic growth that the United States has experienced since 1992 cannot last forever. And, applications for DI and SSI are sensitive to the business cycle....

This paper describes an attempt to build a regression-based system of labor productivity equations that incorporate the effects of capital-embodied technological change into IDLIFT, a structural, macroeconomic input-output model of the U.S. economy. Builders of regression-based forecasting...

This paper examines the effects of deposit rate deregulation in Hong Kong on the market value of banks. The release of the Consumer Council's Report in 1994 recommending interest rate deregulation is found to produce negative abnormal returns, while the announcement in 1995 terminating the...

To mitigate the regulator losses associated with bank failures, efforts are usually made to dispose of failed bank assets quickly. However, this process usually precludes due diligence examination by acquiring banks, leading to problems of asymmetric information concerning asset quality. this...

Woodford (1999) develops the notion of a "timelessly optimal" pre-commitment policy. This paper uses a simple business cycle model to illustrate this notion. We show that timelessly optimal policies are not unique and that they are not necessarily better than the time-consistent solution....