We explore whether the market variance risk premium (VRP) can be predicted. First, we propose a novel approach to measure VRP which distinguishes the investment horizon from the variance swap's maturity. We extract VRP from actual rather than synthetic S&P 500 variance swap quotes, thus avoiding...

We investigate the lead-lag relationships between issuer- and investor-paid credit rating agencies, in the aftermath of the regulatory reforms undertaken in the U.S. between 2002 and 2006 - including watch list inclusions and outlooks. First, we find that the lead effect of investor-paid over...

We investigate whether the favorable performance of a fairly simple multistate multivariate Markov regime switching model relative to even very complex multivariate GARCH specifications, recently reported in the literature using measures of in-sample prediction accuracy, extends to pseudo...

We present an application of importance sampling in a Monte Carlo simulation for multi-asset options and in a Multi-Level Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that applying importance sampling only on the first level of the Multi-Level Monte Carlo significantly improves its effective...

This paper provides a strategy for portfolio risk management by inferring extreme movements in financial markets. The core of the provided strategy is a statistical model for the joint tail distribution that attempts to capture accurately the data generating process through an extremal modelling...

Using the joint characteristic function of equity price and state variables, we can price contingent claims on both equity and VIX consistently. Based on linear approximation of jump size, we show that one factor models implies all VIX future contract of different maturities are perfectly...

We introduce a stochastic volatility model with self-exciting jump intensity to capture the change in pricing dynamic triggered by big negative stock returns. The stochastic variance and jump intensity, and their risk premium are estimated jointly from daily stock returns and option data over...

Large purchasers, or "focal organisations", exert considerable control over their value chains, particularly in the food sector. This paper draws on original qualitative research about the UK beef sector to explore how large purchasers are organising supply-chain eco-innovation. Livestock...

We analyse all Mini Flash Crashes (or Flash Equity Failures) in the US equity markets in the four most volatile months during 2006-2011. In contrast to previous studies, we find that Mini Flash Crashes are the result of regulation framework and market fragmentation, in particular due to the...

This paper contributes to our understanding of agenda shaping and decision making in science, technology and innovation policy and the role of political entrepreneurship in this process. It does so by looking at the emergence of a particular new STI policy area, security research, in the...