In the wake of Brexit and Trump trade war, central banks face the need to reconsider the role of monetary policy in managing the inflationary-recessionary effects of hikes in tariffs. Using a New Keynesian model enriched with global value chains and firm dynamics, we show that the optimal...

Central banks around the world have grappled with the question of how to respond to the mix of inflationary and output implications of a trade war. Recent tariff changes have impacted a wider cross-section of goods than was true in the previous tariff round, targeting final consumption goods in...

This paper finds that limited exchange rate flexibility in the form of “fear of appreciation” significantly slows adjustment of current account imbalances, providing novel support for Friedman’s conjecture regarding exchange-rate flexibility. We present a new stylized fact: floaters have...

In the wake of Brexit and the Trump tariff war, and a general weakening of the political support for free trade, central banks have been faced with the need to reconsider the role of monetary policy in managing the economic effects of unexpected hikes in tariffs and trade costs. Although tariffs...

This paper highlights a tradeoff implied by a policy of export-led growth through currency undervaluation. While undervaluation can foster domestic manufacturing in countries like China by sustaining trade surplus, it also can harm a country's comparative advantage by altering the composition of...

In the wake of Brexit and Trump trade war, central banks face the need to reconsider the role of monetary policy in managing the inflationary-recessionary effects of hikes in tariffs. Using a New Keynesian model enriched with elements from the trade literature, including global value chains,...

While the trade literature has tended to view export activity and innovation as complementary activities, we present evidence that financial constraints are a reason the two activities can act as substitutes for small exporters. In particular, we find that small exporters have lower expenditure...

This paper generates persistent effects of a monetary disturbance in the context of staggered price-setters. Previous research has been restricted by the CES functional form to price-setting rules that are constant markups over marginal costs. The present paper considers a translog form for...

International macroeconomic models long have had difficulty explaining the surprisingly low volatility of the relative price between traded and nontraded goods compared to real exchange rates. This apparent puzzle may reflect a restrictive way of thinking about the nature of nontraded goods....